Is The Housing Market Going To Crash In 2020? Real Estate Market Predictions with Regional Director of Metrostudy Paige Shipp

Paige Shipp: (00:00)
I think that what builders have learned and what frankly what I'm preaching, especially in this year, I'm a little bit of uncertainty, you know, as far as kind of what the environment is politically and things like that is, you know, stay in your lane, do what you do best. You know, this is not the year that if you are typically building, you know, on large half-acre loss to decide that you're now going to do infill, you know, in downtown. Um, you know, so it's really important to make sure that, that you really understand what you do well and, and how you do it well and to keep doing that.

Paige Shipp: (00:31)
Banking on price appreciation is kind of yesterday's thing, so you're right, I mean the, the number one driver today is that mortgage rate and that's something that, you know, nobody knows what's going to happen with them. And so you're much better off capitalizing on that today instead of waiting for the unknown.

Stephanie Lindamood: (00:49)
What's up guys? It's Stephanie with the glam life real estate podcast. Welcome to another episode. I'm super excited because we're going to nerd out today. On all things real estate. Before we get to our awesome guest though, if you haven't already subscribed, hit the pause button, push, subscribe, and if you would be kind enough to leave a quick review on whatever device you are listening to, I would absolutely love your support. It is how any of the podcast players know that you are enjoying the show and getting value out of it and they will serve the show up to more people. So we want to read one of those reviews today. The nickname for the person that reviewed his new home sales rep, so very appropriate and they say awesome and formation exclamation Mark, awesome info. That's helpful. And today's real estate market. So we truly appreciate all those reviews and those five star ratings. Again, that is how the podcast gets served to more people. So as I said, we're going to have a very special guest talking about everything that's going on in the real estate market. She nerds out with me on is there a coming recession, what's happening within an election year, what are interest rates going to do, the affordability issues. So we're going to get to all the things, so stay tuned.

Speaker 3: (02:03)
You're listening to the glam life of real estate podcast where we talk about everything from productivity tips, social media strategies, business hacks, and more to get ahead of the curve and crush it as a real estate sales professional. Whether you office out of a model home or your car car where leopard print and high heels never go out of style. Here's your host, top producing real estate agent, social media strategist, and for baby mama Stephanie Linda mood.

Stephanie Lindamood: (02:35)
Hey guys, it's Stephanie. Thanks for joining us today and we have a treat. I've been super excited about this episode since late last year because if y'all know me, I'm a super big real estate nerd and the guest we have on today, her name is Paige ship. She is the regional director for Metro study in the Dallas Fort worth market, which is the number one market in the country. Let's be real. She is a sought after speaker. She's advisor for new home builders, developers, financial institutions, and she helps guide them on how to best navigate the current housing and economic market conditions. And so she's gonna be with us today for a little bit, talking about the real estate market, what to expect, what happened in 2019. It's the beginning of 2020 so I am so excited to get into the real estate details. So welcome page. Thanks for being on the show. Thanks Stephanie. Thanks for having me. I've been looking forward to this. So let's start real quick and just kind of give everybody, if they don't know you, a quick background, what you currently do and what you, what you're doing for builders and kind of all this information that you have for us.

Paige Shipp: (03:37)
Yeah, so my background is pretty varied. I literally started right out of college. I have a degree in landscape architecture of all things, but you know, kind of the long and the short of it. I've worked for home builders, um, large, large home builders, smaller home builders. Um, I've worked for developers. I've worked actually in the commercial real estate space. I've actually been a realtor. I have a broker's license, so I have a really, really kind of varied background, but it really is all been focused around, um, sales as far as the mostly new home sales, some obviously on the resale side. So now I'm at Metro study and we are, um, uh, very, you know, it's been a, a car company has been around for about 45 years. Um, and we just in the past 13 months actually merged with Meyers research. So we really have went from having, you know, a whole bunch of data to just having a ridiculous amount of data.

Paige Shipp: (04:28)
Um, and so we, um, frankly we have, we, we gather a lot of primary survey research. So what we're doing is we're actually going into the field, um, every quarter and not only in Dallas Fort worth, but throughout, uh, the market or throughout the U S or in 40 markets across the United States. And we are driving the streets of every new home community that is either under development or going to be under development. So we track all of the information as far as that's concerned. And then we're also tracking sales. So we speak with the sales counselors at the communities throughout DFW. And we are tracking, um, net sales and we're also tracking pricing and all sorts of things. So frankly, my job is to take all of that information and decipher it and come up with the, so what, which is, you know, there's a lot of information out there. What do I need to be worried about? What do I not need to be worried about? What are the trends, where are we going, where we've been? And I'll all, everything in between.

Stephanie Lindamood: (05:28)
Aye. That's amazing. Smoke is coming out of your ears and mind. So if we look at 20, 19, do you want to give us a quick breakdown of how that year shaped up and then what we're looking at as we get into 2020?

Paige Shipp: (05:41)
Yeah, absolutely. So, um, as you said, Dallas Fort worth is the number one new home market and that is absolutely the case. So of all the markets that we're tracking, um, again, there's work, we're tracking the pretty much the 40 top markets, Dallas, Fort worth and did number one. Um, and we started, uh, 34,000, 718 new homes in 2019. Um, it's been, it was an interesting year. Frankly. It was a little bit different than how we, um, kind of typically see the cycle. Um, from January to December, typically, you know, we have a pretty busy spring selling season that starts in February and is kind of really heats up in March. And in 2019 it was a slower start. At the end of 2018 obviously there was a jump in mortgage rates and you know, we had a slow down as far as the buyers and there was kind of a resetting, um, on both sides of the aisle, both with home builders as well as sellers on the resale side, but then also with buyers.

Paige Shipp: (06:40)
And so we really saw just kind of a slow easing into 2019 but it really, um, you know, it started more so in April, uh, so a little bit later in the year, but frankly, it never stopped right through the end of 2019 really was fantastic. We had many of my builders that seemed like every month, you know, they're like, wow, we had our best August ever. Wow. We had our best October ever. And then I had many of my builders saying they had the best December they've ever had. Um, if for sales. And so we felt really, really good about the year. Frankly. A lot of it not only has to do a little mortgage rates, obviously that is really, um, a huge driver. Um, but we also have had more affordably priced communities come online and Dallas Fort worth. And so when I'm talking about affordable, you know, kind of the sweet spot and Dallas Fort worth is below 350,000.

Paige Shipp: (07:32)
Obviously the lower the better. It's just hard nowadays to bring on communities, frankly, even much below 250,000. So, um, so overall we've just had a whole bunch of new product coming his way to meet the demand. Um, and speaking of demand, we have, uh, added in Dallas Fort worth in 2019 for the Texas workforce commission, 127,000 jobs. Um, and so when you're looking at that number relative to not only where we've been, but also in comparison to the U S as well as you know, year over year percentage growth. I mean it is off the charts, especially at this point in the cycle. So, you know, we have massive drivers, um, as far as affordability, as far as job growth, um, you know, by location as far as being the center of the country and the airports and all of that. So things are really, really great in our market.

Paige Shipp: (08:22)
We're, we're really, really pleased with 2019 and obviously a great end to 2019 just means that we're set up for success in 2020. So builders are, are, are saying that that same momentum from the end of 2019 has continued into 2020. Um, so we feel good about it. You know, I think there's obviously question marks, you know, we've got some, you know, things happening in China that that definitely could, could impact us. Ha ha. You know, it continues. Um, we've got the election, which obviously is on everybody's mind and it's going to be more so at the end of year, but the overarching kind of fundamentals as well as kind of what we're looking at from demand. We expect to continue to be strong in 2020

Stephanie Lindamood: (09:06)
no, that's good to hear because I feel like, like you said, in 2018 the end of 2018 with rates going up a bit and I don't feel like I'll, a lot of the builders had adjusted to the pricing demands of the buyers and so I felt like it was slowing a bit. But as we've had more builders come online with the more affordable price points, we've seen the market loosen up a bit in that regard.

Paige Shipp: (09:27)
Yeah. And we frankly had a lot of price reset happening, you know, in 2000 at the end of 2018 you know, there had to be kind of a, a very introspective look on the home building side saying, listen, you know, we, we wish we could sell these houses, you know, above $450,000. But you know, our demand is just not, not meeting the supply that we have. So we had price reductions, but then also a, an even stronger focus on bringing that affordability in. So, um, you know, you know, what I've always said is, is the more affordable, and again, I'm talking about below three 15 were more affordable product that we have on the market the longer and longer I feel that, that our cycle is going to last in Dallas Fort worth.

Stephanie Lindamood: (10:08)
And are you seeing that the major driver of those prices going up is land costs or is it anything else? Is it materials that are going skyrocketing? What do you feel like is the driver of those going up?

Paige Shipp: (10:20)
Yeah, the number one is land land has just gotten very, very expensive. Um, but you know, it really depends on kind of where you're talking and meaning, like at what point in time and kind of what location. But in general, the land prices have gone up almost exponentially really since 2012. Um, but really between 2000 call it 13 or so in 2016, we had a major shortage of labor. So obviously labor costs went up, you know, it's your typical econ one Oh one supply and demand. We just didn't have enough labor and so they were able to charge more. Um, we definitely had a lot of material prices between lumber and concrete and all the other different parts and pieces. Those went up. Um, and then obviously we've got just a, you know, you know, you, when you think of the kind of the cycle of home-building, oftentimes you think of it just from, you know, when they start pouring the slab to when the home is obviously being instructed.

Paige Shipp: (11:17)
But there's so much work that has to be done prior to that, you know, obviously entitlements and planning and architecture and you name it, and all of those parts and pieces that fed into it got much more expensive. We just didn't have enough people to do the work. Um, but we feel the good news is, um, you know, land prices frankly, are still high. Um, but we're going a little bit further out geographically, so we're getting a little bit more affordability there. Um, you know, but we are seeing kind of a more stabilization of, uh, not only labor but also materials. So that's good news. Um, but then really the key, and this is kind of where, you know, kind of where we're headed, um, for affordability and for attainable priced homes is density. Um, and that's frankly really one of our number one challenges in Dallas.

Paige Shipp: (12:03)
Fort worth is having more homes per acre, frankly. Um, so you're looking at homes that are on, you know, a 35, 40 foot lot versus what we've always been doing, which is 50 and 60 foot lots or the neighborhoods that want half acre home homesites as a standard. Exactly. And, and you know, frankly, that's, that's, you know, we, we have a very unusual situation in Dallas, Fort worth, cause we have 212 unique municipalities right now. We talked to you about this on the prep. Yep. Yep. And, and there's just so many and you know, of course I get it. You know, you want, you want to make sure that your community and your city, you know, is it the very, very best that it can be. Um, but at the same time you also want diversity. And so there's a lot of concern not only from people living in the cities but also from planning and zoning and city councils, that the only way to ensure a quality city is to regulate lot size and regulate, you know, the type of homes that are being built and things like that.

Paige Shipp: (12:59)
And so we're having pretty strong pushback in many different areas, um, in that sense. And so it's really, uh, restricting us from becoming dense and from really getting more and more of that attainable price product. Yeah, because I feel like if you were to say Dallas Fort worth to talk about the housing market maybe five or 10 years ago, you could kind of do that as a, you could have a blanket statement and say, in general, this is what's happening. I feel like here recently, in the last few years, it's gotten a lot more unique to whatever sub market you are in. If I'm in, let's say I'm in Selena versus walks the Hatchi, it's two totally different conversations on what the market's doing. And that's absolutely true. Yeah. I mean, and it's becoming, you know, just like you said, I mean, it's almost like if you're even in, you know, Selena, it depends on what's happening on this side of the road versus that side, right?

Paige Shipp: (13:49)
I mean, it's coming down to the school districts because we know, and Dallas Fort worth, the school districts don't align with city boundaries and there's a lot of overlap. And then also, you know, which high school you're feeding into. So there's a lot of different things that are way it kind of way into it. And then, you know, you get started on the conversation about taxes and the, you know, the PIDs and the muds. And so there's lots of different kinds of nuances that are kind of driving that. Um, but yes, I mean that's, you know, and that's why we always go back to, you know, making sure that you're working with a realtor or real estate professional because real estate is so local. It is so important to have somebody that has that boots on the ground experience to know, you know, kind of to help kind of find a community and to find a, a house in a neighborhood that's going to fit what you, you and your, you know, household is looking for.

Stephanie Lindamood: (14:38)
So when we're talking about the land cost, I mean like I get it, like if you're holding land, you want the most for it, but let's be real. Raw land isn't changing in price like it what it was three years ago. It's not costing you anymore. I mean the cities may be appraised value, that kind of thing. But do you think that the developers are, they're making more profit on the land. Do you think there's going to be a point where it's going to plateau out or do you think they're just going to be able to keep charging more and more and the more of the infield land positions to where it's just going to keep driving builders away? Or do you think there's going to be a reset on the land costs?

Paige Shipp: (15:13)
Yeah. So there's kind of a bunch of different answers to that question. And it's very, I mean, it's an appropriate question. It's a question we're all asking ourselves at this point. So a couple of things are happening. So you're right, you've got a land seller, um, and oftentimes, especially, you know, in Texas in Dallas, Fort worth, it could be somebody who's owned a land through many generations, right? It doesn't matter if it's infill or if it's in the, you know, more suburban or tertiary. Um, and so they of course want their top dollars. So that's the number one driver really from land cost is the actual raw land price. And we are seeing that these sellers are, are really trying to capitalize and get as much as they can, which makes sense. But when you start to kind of look at it, so you know, kind of your second question, which is, okay, you know, if I buy the land at X number of dollars, you know, an acre, how many homes can I put on it?

Paige Shipp: (16:06)
And at what price? The problem today is that we're, we really have to build the demand, which is in that, call it two 50 to three 50 range. And that means that frankly, we have to pay less for the land you just spent, just doesn't work. Um, and you know, before, you know, again, by before, you know, call it 2015, we were able to put four or $500,000 houses on there, so you're able to pay a little bit more for the land. So that's, that's one part of it. The other part of it is, you're right, I mean, if there's going to be a developer, you know, where it's not just the builder purchasing the land, they're going to have a margin. Right. And, and frankly, they're getting crunched more and more, but they still have a flat number, just like our home builders. Do, you know, as far as how much they wanna make, um, on any transaction.

Paige Shipp: (16:51)
Sure. I mean, yeah, yeah, exactly. Yep. Yeah. And they're taking it right. They're taking the risk, so on and so forth. So what we've seen from a fair number of builders, um, and this seems to kind of swing just depending on where we are in the cycle, but, but much more so recently is that builders are, are opting to go and buy the land directly and essentially cutting out the developer just because they can't afford to pay that premium, um, for what the homes are going to sell for. So they're going like directly to the farmer or the land. Exactly. Got it. Okay. Yep. And so, you know, and so really what that's, you know, so, so that's more risk for them. Right. Um, and so now they're, they're having not only to buy the land, but they're going to have to hold it, right.

Paige Shipp: (17:36)
The entire development period, which sometimes can be rather significant amount of time, but they get the upside of having that control of being able to build on it. So, you know, it's, it's, and that frankly is kind of where we were pre-recession, like the old days. Yep, exactly. So, you know, and builders obviously very much tried to cut back and say, no, no, no. I don't want to be holding land on my books, but you know, it's end of the day, you know, we have to build houses and home builders have to deliver, you know, product that buyers are going to purchase and so they're going to figure out a way to do it. So is that, okay, so that takes me to my next question. Is that why we're seeing, or at least I feel like we're seeing more muds and PIDs, which for you guys, if you're not familiar with DFW or you don't have it in your market, mud is what's called the municipal utility district in a pit.

Paige Shipp: (18:24)
It's called a public improvement district. Is that why we're seeing more of that if the builders are, are buying the land directly or is that totally separate? Nope, that's exactly it. Yeah, I mean, and, and for a long time, you know, we really just, I mean, I can't say just, but the main vehicle for many projects was a mud. Um, but we're seeing more and more of the PIDs and what the pit is allowing, uh, the developers to do is actually have these districts within a city. So typically with the mud, they were in counties, they weren't. Um, and, and municipal utility district is just that. It's, it's setting up utilities, right. So it's, you know, it's, you're going to be service structure. Exactly. Exactly. And the two main differences are with the mud, you get reimbursed kind of on the backend and with the PID you get reimbursed on the front end, however, the developer is a developer developer, correct?

Paige Shipp: (19:16)
Yup, exactly. Yeah. As a developer. Um, but both of them do add another layer of, um, and I hate to use the word tax because it's kinda technically not tax costs. Yeah, exactly. That the buyer's incur, the homeowner's incur. Um, and so although, you know, okay, it allows a builder or developer to deliver a more attainable price product, it still may deign the homeowner on a monthly expense basis. Right. So when you're already paying, you know, 3%, I mean, you could 3% in property taxes, um, it could be on top of that. It could be, you know, 2.7, you know, typically up to of 3.05 is what the PIDs are doing. Um, but that, you know, that's a significant expense. However, the benefit to having a pit and having the mud is that most likely they're going to be used for improvements. So not only the streets, so you're going to have, you know, kinda nicer streetscapes in nicer neighborhoods, but also parks and different amenities and things like that.

Paige Shipp: (20:19)
So it's, it's, you know, kind of a, a give and take. Um, but we are finding success with that, um, to provide that more tangibly priced home as well as including things that may have been cut out if you couldn't, you know, if it didn't kind of make the deal work, which is our wishes, those amenities and, and kind of higher end, um, finish outs and things like that in a community. I kind of think of it like in a toll roads. Right, exactly. The roads were on, look at it. They us to get somewhere

Stephanie Lindamood: (20:48)
faster, easier. We do pay to be on them. But there's, there's a value but there's also an or benefit but there's also a cost.

Paige Shipp: (20:54)
Exactly. Yup. And you just have to decide kind of what's, you know, what's important for you. But I think, you know, from a buyer standpoint and especially, you know, it's just, it's just education, you know, it's just one more thing to kind of teach them that this is, this is part of, um, you know, what it's going to look like once you own this home.

Stephanie Lindamood: (21:11)
So from a buyer's expectations standpoint, are you seeing like we're getting a lot of reloads here and I think just in general, the generations, whether we've got clients that are moving down and want less maintenance or we've got people that are like, Hey, I'm a busy professional or a family, like used to, we had a lot of people that would say, Hey, we want a big lot. Like we want, you know, a playground for the kids. We want all this land. Are you obviously with land prices going up? And the builders building on smaller home sites, are you seeing the buyers look at that as a value add? As far as, Hey, I want lower maintenance so I'm okay paying X for the house, even though there's not a big lot. Or are you seeing their buyers push back and say, Hey, if we're going to pay this, we want a good size homocide?

Paige Shipp: (21:57)
Yeah, it is. It is very particular, you know, and then kind of what, you know, what you're alluding to. But I think that buyers have kind of changed, right? So whereas it used to be you drive into your, you know, your garage, you close the garage and you don't talk to anybody or see anybody until you leave the next day. Um, it's becoming much more important to have that community. So that's really what my developer clients are intensely focused on right now is all right, we recognize that we're not a, we're, you know, not able to provide 70, 80 foot wide lots for our buyers. Um, so what's the trade off, right? What can we offer instead? And so the real strong conversation is around a very quality amenity package. Um, whereas, you know, pre-recession, if you remember Stephanie, it was like only the really big giant communities really had that really nice amenity package.

Stephanie Lindamood: (22:49)
Right? They were like these master plans. Yeah, exactly. They were very select.

Paige Shipp: (22:53)
Right? Um, and then the other communities have what I would call, um, a motel six pool. Right? So they just had a little pool. Yeah, exactly. But now you're seeing really thoughtful ways of putting communities together, um, not only to encourage kind of, you know, engagement amongst all of the, you know, homeowners and households. Um, but then also the amenity packages. Right? And so you're right, I mean, it's, they have to think about it, not just as a family buyer, you know, but what does an empty nest are going to want? So that is, is where our market is headed, which is what I think is exciting because for me, you know, the whole point of buying somewhere is the community. Right? And it's, it's being able to be part of something. Um, and so having that really kind of well thought out in advance, um, is just gonna make, make, you know, DFW in the communities and neighborhoods we have even richer than what we already are. No, that's awesome. How that lifestyle component, exactly. It's all about lifestyle. Yup. That's the fancy word. So what are you

Stephanie Lindamood: (23:52)
seen as we head into 20, 20. Do you feel like interest rates are going to change? Do you feel like the, I know everyone's focused on the election for the third, fourth quarter, but do you think it's going to have the same impact is what I would think 2016 had, which we felt I felt was a pretty significant slowdown starting, I don't know, maybe September I want everyone kind of started paying more attention to the debates and that kind of thing. Do you think we'll see that this year?

Paige Shipp: (24:16)
Yeah. So as far as mortgage rates, we think they're going to hover in the same range where we are now. You know, of course they're always going to go up a couple of basis points here or there, but we feel pretty good that we're going to be saying kind of right. You know, at or below 4%. So that's great news. Um, you know, as far as kind of the year when you start to kind of cut it up like you said, by quarter or by month, you know, I, I'm starting to kind of think about this and it's an interesting thought. So yes, you are absolutely correct. I have been saying, you know, based on major election years, um, we very often see a slow down and it's funny because we, we see the slowdown occur just like you said, September very much in October, usually our October before elections are very slow. Um, go on exactly your vacation. You'll thank us. And then, and then, you know, obviously right after the election it starts to, you know, pick back up and it's plenty cause it doesn't really matter who wins. Um, it's just, you're right, Ash so inundated with all of the news and the commercials and all the information. It just tracks.

Stephanie Lindamood: (25:21)
And then people realize the world is not coming to an end

Paige Shipp: (25:23)
and then move on. Yeah, exactly. But see what I'm wondering now though, so this is what I keep thinking about is there has been so much political conversations now and obviously we know what's happening on the news right now with president Trump. And it seems like, I mean, you know, I'm wondering because there has been so much surrounding it that I wonder if people are almost getting desensitized. So it'll be interesting to see if, you know, my theory is a little bit, you know, is right. Or maybe we have a little bit less of a slowdown, um, just because it's not going to be dramatically different from what we've really had over the past call it, you know, six months to, you know, to two years as far as all of the conversations surrounding D C and everybody in there. So we'll see. I'm, I'm, you know, I think that we need a plan that is going to slow down, but, um, you know, maybe it won't be as slow as, as everybody's expecting.

Stephanie Lindamood: (26:14)
I totally agree with you. I think that, um, regardless of where you fall politically, I feel like even, I feel like both sides have kind of come out and said, we don't know if we can beat who's in the white house right now based on the lineup. Unless there's a surprise, maybe like the summer of a new candidate that comes on that either we've seen before or just someone brand new. I, I feel like people are kind of like, it's more of the same and it's not this neck and neck who's it going to be? It's just kind of like, this is, it is what it is.

Paige Shipp: (26:46)
Yeah, I agree with that. So that's where it's, you know, it'll be interesting to see. I mean, obviously we, you know, since there's an incumbent versus where we were four years ago, it's very different. So, um, but you know, I think we need to brace ourselves that, that October is going to be slower. And you know, just, you just know that November and December is likely going to be busier than what we typically would see in a non-election year.

Stephanie Lindamood: (27:09)
Right. And I think when you're talking to your clients, it's just, it's a nonissue. Like, Hey, the world, Hey, everything's great. The news is great. The unemployment, slow jobs are up, all that kind of stuff. Yeah, it's, there's something on the news right now, but it shouldn't hinder you from stopping your life. So if you do have customers coming in or clients that want to go see homes, you know, that's awesome.

Paige Shipp: (27:30)
Yeah. It's still a fantastic time to buy and you know, it. And I think too, I mean, you know, again, with all of kind of the, the buildup from, you know, the end of 2019 and a 2020, I just think it's a lot of people recognizing that, right? That, you know, what now is a great time to buy. And I just don't see that kind of consumer confidence, so to speak, changing, you know, as, as the year goes on.

Stephanie Lindamood: (27:54)
Agreed. So if we're talking about like buyer expectations, um, I mean with the relo's that we're getting, they have, you know, they're used to different things in homes. They're moving into Texas. Are you seeing changes in what buyers are wanting in the homes? Are you seeing changes in, Hey, we don't want such a big home, we want something smaller, but that's really thought out, like what are you seeing as far as where homebuilders could go, Hey, we need to start editing or maybe tweaking plans or is it kind of more of the same and we're moving down the road?

Paige Shipp: (28:25)
Yeah. You know, I think, I think, I think it's not only the relocations, um, you know, from the coasts we're obviously, there's smaller products, smaller lots, things like that. I also think it's generational, you know, I think with, you know, the, the millennials, you know, which I know all of us are tired of that word, but they just obviously have a different, um, kind of different priorities than what, you know, maybe my generation or my parents' generation had. So they're wanting more experiences. They're, they're okay with spending less on a home. Um, we are seeing a, definitely a shift as far as square footage. Um, we've seen kind of a, it hasn't been dramatic, but the, the average and median size of a home is definitely going down. Um, as far as what people are buying and what home builders are building. Um, you know, I think too, I think that that, you know, it's density is a funny thing and obviously I talked about it earlier, but you know, one thing as a home builder you have to be very cautious of, especially when you're building density, is the resale side of things.

Paige Shipp: (29:27)
So, you know, you really need to understand, um, that if you're in Collin County for example, and you are building a on a 30 foot lot or a 35 foot lot, that frankly the resale stock in Collin County, for the most part, it's fairly new, right? So if you have a buyer that says, okay, do I want a home that was built 15 years ago on a 60 foot lot or a home that's new on a 35 foot lot, that's about the same price, they may opt for the little bit larger lot. Right? So that's something to keep in mind. Just be very, very cognizant on that, that, you know, the comparables that you're using just aren't new homes, but they're resales. Um, you know, I do, you know, I always kind of giggle when we talk about this master up versus master down thing, right? Um, you know, it's, it cannot tell you how many buyers that, that I've spoken to that say, well, we wanted a master up.

Paige Shipp: (30:23)
My realtor told me that would never sell if we, you know, bought one. So now we're living in a master down. Right. Um, and I think that that's, you know, I, I get that, but I do think that there's more, there's more openness to, to having a master up. I mean, obviously you're not going to blanket your floor plan line up with it. Um, but you know, I think that there's, you know, there, there needs to be a little bit, probably more inclusion of that concept. And regardless, you made, no matter what you're looking at, and obviously this doesn't always work with density, but single story plans, you know, are huge. I mean, that's probably the number one complaint I get from realtors is builders are not building enough single stories. You know what, I'd try to explain to them that there's very good reasons for that obviously has to do with economics more than anything else. Right? Um, but that, that is always going to be something that that buyers, buyers, you know, many, many of the buyers are going to prefer.

Stephanie Lindamood: (31:17)
I think what's hard with the one stories is people say they want them. If you go to a focus group, they will say, I want a one story. I want to all on one level, whether they're young or older, it doesn't matter. They want that type of home. But then the problem is a lot of times, okay, the builders say, great, we're going to take this focus group. We're going to take the information and go produce product to match that. When they get the price and they go, Oh, I can buy a 2000 square foot, one story for three 50 or I can buy a 2,600 square foot two story for three 75 and it has this game room and a bigger backyard because it is as you story, they're going to go do that. And then the builder sitting here going, but all y'all told me you wanted a one story. Yeah.

Paige Shipp: (31:59)
[inaudible] I totally agree. Yeah. And I think that, I think yes, you're right. In a perfect world it would be, you know, all things being equal, of course they're going to go with the one story, but we know that that's not the case, right. There's always going to be a trade off. Um, so, but I do think that that's something to be cognizant of, especially as we're talking about these move down buyers or move over buyers or empty nesters. Um, I mean it, it no longer becomes a desire. It becomes, you know, a need. They just did not have the stairs. And so it's just if something you have to balance and something, you know, that is, that's always going to be a struggle in the home building world. Um, but you know, I just don't think that's going away anytime soon.

Stephanie Lindamood: (32:37)
So besides lot costs when are working with a developer or builder to try to figure out, Hey, should we go into this neighborhood and if we do, what type of product, and I'm sure you guys look at market data and demographics to figure out what, what would best suit that area? What other things do you look at besides lot costs to figure out if this is a feasible project?

Paige Shipp: (32:58)
Oh gosh. It's all, I mean, you know, frankly the, you know, there was a couple of things. Obviously one of the biggest things that I always like to look at is let's assume that two people are going to be working in the household, right? So you've got dual income. Um, but let's assume that they're also not going to be working at the same place. So they may not be both going to downtown Dallas. Right. Okay. So, so what's really important as far as kind of not only choosing that location, um, but making sure that it's viable is that you have two employment centers that are easily accessible and by easily, I don't mean you know, within three minutes, but I mean you can get to the highways, you can get there in a reasonable amount of time, you know, call it 30, 35 minute type thing.

Paige Shipp: (33:43)
So that is, is incredibly important, especially in today's day and age with obviously cost of living and things like that. Um, you know, beyond that I think, you know, the key is really understanding who, who is buying in your community. You know, um, I think that's often something that just gets kind of pushed by the wayside. Um, because builders have, have historically and developers have historically been so focused on that family buyer, you know, so it's what I call the, the model that has the ubiquitous ballerina room and then the soccer room, right? So there's just kind of this understood or kind of assumption that it's going to be a family buyer. I think builders in Dallas Fort worth are getting much, much better about, you know, realizing that you have a much stronger variety of buyer types. But I think that that the kind of, um, pre-planning, so to speak, not only of the layouts of the amenities of, of where you're putting the different lot sizes within the community, all needs to be under the guise of, okay, are we going to have, you know, a good percentage of family buyers or is it going to be more empty nesters, is it going to be more young professionals?

Paige Shipp: (34:50)
And so I think that should be a, you know, an ongoing theme, not only from the beginning of really setting up the community but then also, you know, through the construction of the home and really understanding what, what's being offered.

Stephanie Lindamood: (35:04)
And I also think the, the point you made about making sure that two employment centers are close are assessable is, is huge. What do you think the work from home model, how is that impacting some of the builder locations that are maybe on the outside

Paige Shipp: (35:19)
skirt? You know, it's hard to say about, I mean, and I say it's hard to say because you know, I think at the end of the day, I mean there, there clearly are people who do work from home. Um, but, but everything that we're seeing from a data standpoint is that they are still at some point in the week having to go somewhere or employment. And by that I mean either they're going to an office or very often they're going to the airport, right? Cause they're flying. So there's always going to be a consideration of accessibility to one of those majors, you know, which is either employment or, or airport, you know. And luckily in Dallas, Fort worth, you know, employment overlaps with airports. Since we know one of the largest employment areas is right near Dallas Fort worth airport.

Stephanie Lindamood: (36:06)
Right. So as far as, if you're talking to a home builder and they're using, you know, plans that they've had for a while or they're just trying to figure out how to best optimize themselves. Are you seeing builders do multiple plan lineups? Like we used to have, I used to work for national builder and they have like the entry level line and then they had kind of the move up buyer line and they had the luxury line. Are you finding builders are having success with that model still or is it better for them to take one product and really own it and roll that out?

Paige Shipp: (36:39)
You know, so, so I mean I think there's obviously there's different kind of parts and pieces for everybody. I think that what builders have learned and what frankly what I'm preaching, especially in this year, I'm a little bit of uncertainty, you know, as far as kind of what the environment is politically and things like that is, you know, stay in your lane, do what you do best. You know, this is not the year that if you are typically building, you know, on large half-acre loss to decide that you're now going to do infill, you know, in downtown. Um, you know, so it's really important to make sure that, that you really understand what you do well and, and how you do it well and keep doing that. But instead of adding kind of those, um, different brands, how have you kind of want to look at it?

Paige Shipp: (37:20)
Right? So obviously many builders do have, you know, a 200 to two 50 product, they have a product that's 500,000. You know, sometimes they've got one that's, that's much more high on luxury. What we're finding is that they're using kind of a base plan and then they're able to, um, kind of walk out options, right? So you can say, okay, in this community we have the same plan lineup, but we're going to have this level. They may be. Exactly. Exactly. Um, and you're able to, and that I think is allowing flexibility from not only from the builders, but it also helps the homeowners. I mean, that's one thing. That's something that's always driven me crazy. You know, I say that you've got these home builders that have a list of plans being offered that as long as you are right, I mean it gets so overwhelming to buyers and you know, you've got this one plan that a buyer falls in love with, but they're going to have to drive, you know, an hour and a half to the other side of the metroplex to see it.

Paige Shipp: (38:18)
Cause that's the only other place that they sell it. Right, right. At the end of the day, if you know, yes, I mean a buyer does like to see touch and feel and be able to kind of have a sense of what it's going to be. But if you have a floor plan that's being offered in one may have a higher offering as far as the details, but it's still the same floor plan. You have the ability for them not to have to drive all over just to go see the layout. Right. And it's interesting because you know, in California they model every plan that they offer. So typically they offer from five to seven plans. That's it. And they model every single one. Um, and so here it's just, it's very different when you have one model in a community and you offer, you know, 12 1425 different plans, it makes them much more challenging for that buyer.

Paige Shipp: (39:09)
So I think, you know, kind of long story short is I think builders are reeling that realizing that simplicity really is, is something that's helping them to, to kind of not just entice the buyer but make sure that they understand kind of what they're getting and what, what the floor plans look, feel and kind of tastes like. Do you feel like builders are having to cut standard features to get prices where they need to be or are they, are they redeveloping product? It's product already. It's really hard to, to really take anything. I mean of course you can value engineer and of course you know, it depends on where you kind of are starting from. But if you've already value engineered something, you know, one even two times, it's hard to go that much further than that. Right? At the end of the day, it is about the efficiency and the plans, right?

Paige Shipp: (39:59)
It's the efficiency and, and how they're being built, the layout and things like that. That's where you're going to get the most bang for your buck. And that's really what, what we saw a significant amount of kind of occurring after that slowed down in 2018 you know, builders saying, you know what, I'm, I'm closing out the models I have. I'm coming in with brand new product that is just a much more efficient use of materials and labor so that I can offer a more tangibly priced home. And what are you seeing with incentives? Are you seeing incentives, um, increase, decrease? I, I've had an, I see it across the board, but I was just curious your thoughts. Well, th that was making, that's another thing that always makes me laugh because in other markets they, I mean, if the market is super, super strong, there's no incentives.

Paige Shipp: (40:47)
I mean zero, the price is what the price is, you know? And, and I always laugh because in Dallas Fort worth, we always have incentives. We've always had them, no matter how strong the market is, it is, it really, we've trained, build jobs, build jobs, you're building, you're customizing this whole thing is that we're still going to give you an incentive just to buy. Yeah. And it's just, it's one of those funny things, but you're right. This is, we're definitely at the point in the cycle where we're seeing less, um, kind of incentives being offered, especially on that, you know, call it 200 to 300,000 price point and we're seeing in some cases, much higher incentives on the more expensive homes. Um, and of course, just like you said, I mean, you know, to be built are always going to have a lower incentive than a spec depending on where that spec is, you know, in the process.

Paige Shipp: (41:35)
And if it was a fallout and it's kind of funky versus a deliberate one, you know, that. And that's always, that's, that's always been the case. It's always going to be the case. Um, but today it's, it's probably the biggest difference is price point. I think we're just seeing less, fewer incentives on the lower prices than we are at the higher prices. Do you feel like the, when they, when they updated the tax bill on the property tax right off of not being able to write anything past 10 grand, do you feel like that hindered the, the higher markets more or do you think it is still an affordability issue in general? You know, I think obviously it didn't help but it wasn't, we definitely were not nearly as impacted as the much more expensive markets. Right. So the Southern California, Northern California, um, you know, the Northeast and things like that, they, they had major, they obviously had had got, they had, they were hit.

Paige Shipp: (42:25)
Um, for sure. But you know, I think that that here, and this is the other part that I, I tried to explain cause I've had the opportunity to travel to a lot of other markets and look at their, you know, look at what, how they approach the world. So, again, kind of talking about California, you know, when you buy a home in California that $700,000, you are scraping together. And again, I'm being very generalist, but you know, especially in San Diego, right? You're scraping every penny together for $750,000 home and you are driving, um, a very low end car. You know, that's 15 years old right here. If you're buying a $750,000 home, you're buying, you're also driving a range Rover, your, you know, your, your percentage of what your home to what your income is is much smaller. So I think that because of this market, yes, I mean obviously it'd be great if we had more of a tax, you know, rebate type thing, um, on the more expensive, but at that level, when you have that income in Dallas Fort worth, it's much more about, you know, doing what you want because it makes you happy and less about the tax benefits.

Paige Shipp: (43:32)
Yeah, no, that makes sense. What are you seeing as far as inventory levels with builders? Are you seeing them kind of loosen up and build more inventory or spec homes or even though it's a funny thing? Right. So that's a great question. So, you know, I will tell you again, end of 18. I mean there was pure panic, right? Because there was so much hangover and inventory and so builders, you know, I would say a swing swung, swung, swung in the opposite direction. Um, in 2019 where they built, they built through and sold through um, their spec inventory and then they're like, Oh, wait a second, I need more specs. Right now they're going back where they're building more specs. And it's just a funny point because that affordable buyer, and again, it's, you know, three called a $350,000 buyer, they're more apt to purchase a spec.

Paige Shipp: (44:19)
They're not wanting to go through the entire build process. So it is going to be important that, that the builders have that inventory. But I still think that, you know, from the recession, from that we had an 18 builders recognize that they're not wanting to carry a mass amount of inventory. So I think the discipline is there, which I think is good, but because we're not kind of blanketing the market with spec inventory, I also think that that's going to keep our sales a little bit lower than maybe where we could be because we just don't have as much product that's ready to be moved into or ready to be sold that's available. Um, as it was when we were selling this price point, you know, many years ago. Yeah. Cause I feel like, I mean, I don't know about you, but everywhere I go, there's an apartment complex going up.

Paige Shipp: (45:10)
We have so many more renters in the market and that's a great candidate for an inventory home a lot of times. Right. Yeah. And I agree. And in your, I mean, you know, demographics of it have shifted so we have a lot more renters by choice versus, you know, being forced to rent. Um, but at the end of the day, you're right. I mean, you know, there's, there's oftentimes, you know, would be buyers are forced to rent because they're just don't have the availability of product that they want. And I think probably the biggest pushback is that, you know, it's not only the price point, but it's the location, right? So you want a $250,000 home that's, you know, closer to downtown. And that's really obviously very tough to get. Right. Um, but you can get that with an apartment, you know, so that's kind of one side of it.

Paige Shipp: (45:56)
Um, I will say, I think the other part of it is, especially when it comes to people living in apartments is, is there's a definitely a perception, you know, they believe they need to either have 20% down, they need to have all of them, 100% of their debt paid off. You know, they, they don't think they can afford a home because it's just going to be too expensive. And all of those are, you know, fallacies. Right. You know, I love talking to my millennials and they say, Oh my gosh, I could never afford, afford a home. I'm like, really? So how much are you paying a month in rent? I'm paying 250, you know, 25, I'm $100 a month in uptown and I'm like, ah, that is like twice what I'm paying on my mortgage. Right. Yup. You know, so it's just, it's, it's partially perception, but at the same time you're not going to be able to buy, um, you know, like I said, a $350,000 house in uptown, so it's a lifestyle thing.

Paige Shipp: (46:44)
Um, but yes, I mean I, I think that that, you know, the, the ability for those renters who want to purchase a home is, is definitely a challenge. We just don't have as many, um, if the price point that they can afford. Are you finding, when you look at the demographics that, that, so I'm barely a millennial and I bought my first home when I was 23. Are you finding that the generation kind of behind me that they're waiting longer to buy due to weather, you know, choice or maybe they're, they've got different debts that maybe we didn't have in our generation. Yeah. And I think, I mean, I think frankly, the number one driver is just that, that they're choosing to kind of become adults later. I mean for better, better, best way to put it. Right. So choosing to kind of enjoy, they're choosing to get married later and have kids later because you know, obviously one of the major drivers for purchasing a home is going to be, you know, when you get more people in your household and that, that that will never change.

Paige Shipp: (47:42)
You know, I think what we're seeing, the big difference from that, you know, millennial buyer is not in what they want. It's in the way that they shop and in the way that they look at things because they do, they still want the white picket fence. They want what's best for their kids. They want to be able to get to where, I mean, you know, the way that they're there, um, living so to speak. Of course there's lots of other different parts and pieces, but generally speaking, it's not much different than how their parents were. The biggest difference really is just that, you know, with the social media and you know, and the way that they're being bombarded with information and you know, they don't even use email. They just text me all of that. That's really more of a messaging than it is about, you know, kind of what they're actually choosing to live in.

Stephanie Lindamood: (48:29)
Got it. No that makes sense. What do you think about, um, so I worked with a lot of clients that maybe they are looking, I call it right size cause sometimes I don't want to downsize but they want a different configuration now we have mobile devices. They may not need a quote unquote study because they can take their laptop anywhere in the house, that kind of thing. Do you, what are you seeing or thinking it's going to happen on the horizon where I feel like we're going to have more of these larger homes, older homes on the market as some of that population decides that they want to right size, downsize, what have you, are you seeing that and how do you think it will impact the market?

Paige Shipp: (49:04)
We have not seen that just yet. But yeah, that's a major concern kind of throughout our industry, you know, nationwide, which is, you're right, we're going to have these McMansions that we've been building for, you know, 20 years that are no longer, you know, highly desired by this next generation of home buyers. Um, and so, I mean, I think that that's definitely a concern. You know, I mean, obviously like we had mentioned earlier, you know, you've got, you know, an older couple, um, that you're right, they, they are, you know, they're not only are they still working, but they, you know, they, they want a very, very nice home. They just don't want a two story. Right. Um, and so it's going to be interesting to see, you know, we have not seen a mass amount of, you know, kind of inventory hangover in the larger homes.

Paige Shipp: (49:50)
Um, but it's definitely something that, that we could see happen. Um, I do think that, again, we're clearly much more affordable on our Mark. And again, it's all relative, right? So we definitely have, you know, the ability to, to purchase homes that, um, that are not, you know, two, 300 to two or $3 million like you would on the coast and said there they have lot more of that product, um, in other markets than we do. But it could, I mean it's, it's a very real concern, you know, but we're not going to know it probably until after it happens. So,

Stephanie Lindamood: (50:22)
so looking, last question on this and I've got a couple of questions I asked. Each guest would look in like a five, 10 year roadmap. We, I think we discussed this on the prep call a few weeks ago, you know, we kind of been hearing and we always hear, I think in real estate, well recession's looming or that kind of thing. And I feel like, you know, we had the big one in OAA and we haven't really had anything major happen. We've had some slow downs for a couple of months here and there. But do you guys have anything on the horizon that you're seeing either nationwide or from a DFW standpoint that you're like, Hey, you know, start saving your money, or Hey, now's the best time to sell or buy because some stuff may change in the next few years and reset.

Paige Shipp: (51:00)
Yeah, so, so kind of the, the stock answer has been, and so we've got two fantastic economists that, that, um, that we have that work at our company. Um, and you know, what they like to say is, is one, they know a recession is coming. They just can't guarantee when it's gonna happen. Right. So we know what's going to happen. We just don't know when. Um, but then too, it seems like the over, you know, the comment that we've been making really since 2015 is it'll be, it'll happen in two years. It'll happen in two years. Right. Keep saying that, you know, every year it's going to be two years out. And so we are still thinking that there is going to be a slow down and call it 2022. But I, and I cannot stress this enough. This is something that, you know, there's no question about it.

Paige Shipp: (51:42)
It is not going to be a housing driven recession. Um, the last one was a housing driven recession. Obviously no question. Um, this time, of course, you know, when, when jobs aren't being added at the same clip, um, and when there's consumer confidence issues, all of those things are going to affect our market in our industry. There's no question, but it's not going to be our fault that we're having all these issues. Right. So, um, you know, from a, you know, from a, you know, kinda long term, longer term kind of conversation, um, the fact that it, that we, that it is not going to be a housing driven recession speaks bodes well for the fact that we're not going to have this massive devaluation that we saw in many markets, you know, last recession. So, you know, if you need to buy a home, you still are going to need to live somewhere.

Paige Shipp: (52:37)
Um, you know, at some point mortgage rates are going to go up. Um, and frankly it could happen, you know, at a similar time to when we have the recession. Right. So, you know, lock it in now get what you want be where you want to be. Um, you know, from a home mind standpoint. Um, but overall we still feel like, you know, there will be some sort of a slow down but it's going to be much more of a tempered slowdown and less of a, you know, turning off the faucet like we saw last time.

Stephanie Lindamood: (53:06)
Okay. And I tell my sellers, cause I have some sellers that will be like, well, should we sell now? Because if we wait a little bit we may be able to, you know, appreciate a little bit more. And I'm like guys, the interest rates are so low, the buyers have so much more buying power today. Then if rates go to four and a half percent or five years,

Paige Shipp: (53:22)
absolutely. Yep. Absolutely. And we are not seeing that appreciation, which frankly on my side of things is good. We're not seeing that home price appreciation either on the new or resale side. You know, the more that we stay flat, the more, um, ability we are, the more buyers can afford, you know, to buy these homes type thing. So I, you know, kind of banking on price appreciation is kind of yesterday's thing. Um, so you're right, I mean, the, the number one driver today is that mortgage rate and that's something that, you know, nobody knows kind of what's going to happen with them. And so you're much better off capitalizing on that today instead of waiting for the unknown.

Stephanie Lindamood: (54:01)
Yeah, no, I agree. Well, good deal. So I feel good. I mean, this makes me feel good about 2020 we were, I mean, let's be real in 20 end of 2018 beginning of 2019 it was like,

Paige Shipp: (54:12)
yes, exactly. Not good. No,

Stephanie Lindamood: (54:16)
no. So, and it's also good to hear, you know, in real estate sometimes you feel like you're on an Island, so it's like, Oh, I wasn't the only one thinking that, you know?

Paige Shipp: (54:22)
Right, right. Yeah, no, it was rough for a lot of us. Yeah, it definitely was. But you know, it's, it's one of those things that it just kind of forced people to reset. And you know, one thing I always say, and this is, you know, kind of what happened in 18 was we had that jump in mortgage rates and buyers frankly, were surprised, right? And they weren't necessarily, I mean they were surprised by the mortgage rate, but they were surprised by what it did to their monthly payment and then what they could actually afford now that mortgage rates went up. And what builders and I think realtors were not prepared for was that kind of followup conversation, which is, no, you can't afford this house that you had your heart set on, but let's talk about what you can afford. Right? Let's figure out what can work. And so that's those conversations that I think we're much more open to having today. Then what we were ready for in 2018

Stephanie Lindamood: (55:12)
Sweta client that I had to have that conversation with the other night because where they're at in the Collin County is an awesome area, but they've been there 15 years and they are in a master plan community, but they've got builders around them and what they thought they could sell for. I said, look, it's not because your house isn't a great house. It doesn't mean that Hey, if there was no builders, it wouldn't have appreciated like this. But because they're coming in at this price, we can't sell for that cause you're 15 years old. And they were like, Oh, like it just, but we had to have that conversation because they're sitting there and I said, and then they says, you know, maybe we should wait. And I said, okay, so someone's approved for 600,000 at 4% if rates go to four and a half, now they may be approved for five 50 exactly. As a seller, you know, the interest rate definitely impacts the buyers that can buy your home in the price because as those rates change, less buyers can afford your home now. And they were like, it's like they, it's not, it's not crazy smart information, but once you break it down and explain it like that, cause they don't do this every day, it hits home about, okay, yeah, we can't price where the builders at. Right.

Paige Shipp: (56:24)
Right. And I think too, it's also a reset in thinking that, you know, your home's not a piggy bank, you know? Um, and just because somebody sold a house down the street, you know, for 400,000 doesn't mean you get to list it for four 25. You know, it's, it's a, it's a lot of resetting of that expectation. Um, but people are smart. They get it. It's, and you're right. I think it just, again, it just shows the value of a real estate agent and, and really being able to have that conversation and explain to them kind of the, the consequences of either waiting or the benefits of, of going, going ahead and buying or selling at this point. Yeah, no, I agree. So I have five questions that I Oh boy. Okay. Bye. They're fun. Nothing too, too stressful. The first question is what's one of the one thing that most people don't know about you?

Paige Shipp: (57:11)
That's a good question. Um, you know, probably one thing that would surprise people is that we have a giant RV, um, that we purchase like four or five years ago. I've got two sons and my husband is lucky enough he has his own company, so he takes the summer off. So he drives with them throughout the country and they go and explore all these fabulous places. And since I'm working, I actually fly in and meet them and stay with them for a week and then kind of fly home and, and get back to work. So nice. Yup. Okay. Question two is a two part question. The first part is what's the best piece of advice you've ever gotten? You know, my dad told me something and you know, you kind of roll your eyes when, um, you know, when you, when your parents tell you things.

Paige Shipp: (57:54)
But this is something I've lived by and I always will, which is figure out something you love to do and find a way to get paid for it, you know? So that's kind of, and it's, and it can be in anything. It doesn't just have to be a job and it can be in, you know, your passion or, or even a side gig or something like that. But I think about that all the time, which is if you don't love what you're doing, um, don't do it. But at the same time, you also need to figure out a way to get paid. Exactly. Yeah. Things cost money. And the second part of that question is, what's the piece of advice you'd want to give to the audience? You know, from a real estate perspective, um, you know, I can't be, you know, more, you know, same thing.

Paige Shipp: (58:35)
I tell my builder developer clients, I mentioned this earlier, but just in today's part of the cycle that we're in, just keep doing what you do best. Don't try to be everything to everyone. Don't try to, you know, don't focus on, you know, that somebody else is doing something, you know, different or working with, you know, a buyer type that they're having great success with. So you want to do that. Don't be, don't be chasing what everybody else is doing. Recognize what you do very, very, very well and just put 100% into that 120% and just keep on doing it. Love it. And question number three is, what's one of your favorite books, the one that's had the greatest impact on you? Hmm. Oh gosh, that's a good question. Um, and I'm gonna, you know what, I'm going to have to, I'll probably have to email it to you, but there was a book written by a security expert, um, and I always forget the name of the book.

Paige Shipp: (59:30)
It was years and years and years ago. Um, but essentially what it was about was trusting your gut, right? And it's about kind of that fight or flight, you know, concept. And, um, it's terrible that I can't remember the name of the book, but, um, it's really all about, you know, when, when, when you're in a situation when you're not quite sure and you've got that kind of little inkling that wait a second, you know, I probably should kind of walk away from this. Trust yourself instead of kind of going with, well, I don't want to offend somebody or I don't want to, you know, do something different. It's, it's really, you know, that really, I, I keep, I keep that with me in the back of my head often, which is Paige, if you are thinking something and you just feel to be true, even though there's other, you know, data points are people telling you differently. Gotta trust yourself. So I'll send you the name of that book when I remember it.

Stephanie Lindamood: (01:00:17)
Perfect. And we'll link it in the show notes. Um, question number four. What's your current, your current morning routine?

Paige Shipp: (01:00:22)
Oh gosh, that's a good question. Um, you know what, it's, it's typically, you know, I read, I read about people who don't have their phone next to their bed and I can't imagine doing that. Um, so it's, you know, literally just sitting there and scrolling through everything, all my emails and all of that. And then obviously looking at what's happened in the newspaper and everything that's kind of current events. Um, but then frankly, you know, it's like when I'm, when I'm getting ready, I don't have breakfast, which I know I should, but you know, when I'm getting ready, I'm sending emails, I'm remembering things that I probably should've done the day before. So it's really about multitasking, asking, you know, I'm really about just trying to get everything done and get myself out the door. Um, cause if I don't, then I'll just sit there and open my computer and I'll never get out the door.

Stephanie Lindamood: (01:01:07)
I know. I feel you on that. And then the last question is, how do you unplug and unwind?

Paige Shipp: (01:01:12)
Yeah, that's a good question. Um, I gotta say I love myself a glass of red wine. Um, and you know, it's really about, for me, it's, it's kind of my, one of my most favorite, favorite, favorite things to do is have dinner with my family. Um, you know, we don't, it's obviously no, no phones, no iPads, the TV's off and it's our time to not only talk about the day, but just talk about, you know, silly things or questions they have about things they've heard or questions we have for them. And I say that's probably one of the most grounding times that I have of the day. And we are very, very, very conscious about really trying to make that happen. I mean, I'd say we'd probably, um, eat dinner together, you know, six, if not seven, seven days a week. Oh wow. That's awesome. Yeah. So it's something we were really conscious about.

Stephanie Lindamood: (01:02:02)
Good deal. So how, okay, so let's talk about things that you do. So do you hold events or do you go to conferences or how can people get in touch with you if they want to experience, you know, some of the services that you offer, what's the best way for them to do that?

Paige Shipp: (01:02:15)
So yeah, reach out to me. I'd love to talk with them. We have a membership is kind of the basic, you know, so if you're a member of Metro study or um, Zonda or there's different subscriptions you have, you get the data, you get access to me. I've got quarterly briefings, that's client only briefings. Um, so that's kind of the, the basis of it. But I often, you know, I speak at many different events. I speak for realtors. I often speak at the Collin County association of realtors. I speak at MetroTex, um, you know, tomorrow I'm actually doing a forecast for the, um, Fort worth builder association. So there's lots of different things. I don't often publicize it myself, but you know, you'll see lots of other people kind of publicizing that I'm coming to speak, which frankly speaking is one of my most favorite things that I do. So typically you can, can find me somewhere at any given time of the week or during the month and I am speaking at some engagement.

Stephanie Lindamood: (01:03:10)
Okay. And you do quarterly updates, the annual or monthly or

Paige Shipp: (01:03:13)
formally? Quarterly. Quarterly, yep. So we have our quarterly quarterly updates that we do. Um, and it's not only updating theirs, the data is updated quarterly for the Metro study on our, our Zonda side, we actually update it monthly. Um, but when I am speaking to my clients, um, and, and giving them kind of a market update, I do that on a quarterly basis.

Stephanie Lindamood: (01:03:33)
Awesome. And then where's the best place for them to connect with you on social? Is it LinkedIn?

Paige Shipp: (01:03:37)
LinkedIn. Yep. It is. I mean I've got of course all the other ones but, but you know, LinkedIn is the best way to reach me.

Stephanie Lindamood: (01:03:43)
Perfect. Well we appreciate you and all your knowledge. I would love to have you on kind of as an ongoing, absolutely placeholder just to keep us updated. Um, and we appreciate your time and we'll talk soon. Awesome. Thank you. Thanks page. So I hope you enjoy this episode with Paige. I know I enjoyed our conversation and can't wait to have her back in a few months to talk about anything else that's going on in the housing market. If you want to go to the show notes page, you can go to the glam girl, boss.com/podcast and don't forget, if you haven't already subscribed to the show on the device you're listening on, hit subscribe. If you haven't already gone in to write a quick review to tell us what you're thinking about the show and what you're getting out of it, I would love you to show your support by going in and writing a quick review. And I do feature I review in every show so you have a chance to get featured on the show. Thanks for joining us today and we'll talk soon. Bye guys.